Studi e Proiezioni Elettorali: European Election 2014: simulation of composition of new Parliament

Polls and results country by country

Key Poll: country
seats
distribution seats method
threshold
poll/average - date (dd/mm/yyyy)
poll link


Germany			France			United Kingdom
96 seats			74 seats			73 seats
Sainte-Laguë			d'Hondt			d'Hondt (Nothern Ireland: SVT)
national threshold 3%			constituency threshold 5%
average october 2013			Ifop 09/10/2013			Survation 11/10/2013
http://goo.gl/aqnNtk			http://goo.gl/3dPrDO			http://goo.gl/ggi7cy
CDU/CSU	41,4%	42	FN	24,0%	19	Labour	35,1%	25
SPD	25,6%	26	UMP	22,0%	17	UKIP	22,2%	16
Linke	9,1%	10	PS	19,0%	15	Tories	21,3%	15
Grünen	9,1%	9	UDI/MoDem	11,0%	9	LibDem	11,1%	8
AfD	5,1%	5	FG (PCF/PG)	10,0%	8	Green	4,9%	3
FDP	3,6%	4	EELV/MEI	6,0%	5	SNP	2,8%	2
Piraten	2,5%		NPA	2,0%		PC	1,7%	1
			DLR	2,0%		BNP	0,7%
			LO			SF		1
			MPF/CPNT		1	DUP		1
						UUP		1

Italy			Spain			Poland
73 seats			54 seats			51 seats
Hare/Niemeyer			d'Hondt			d'Hondt (subd.: Hare/Niemeyer)
national threshold 4%						national threshold 5%
average last 15 days			average october 2013			TNS 22-24/10/10
http://goo.gl/MrlIxg			http://goo.gl/OVwu5C			http://goo.gl/CaZznh
PD	28,8%	23	PP/UPN	31,2%	18	PO	41,0%	24
FI	24,3%	20	PSOE	27,3%	16	PiS	32,0%	18
M5S	21,6%	18	Izquierda	13,1%	8	SLD/UP	11,0%	6
SC/UDC	5,8%	5	UPyD	9,7%	6	Europa Plus (TR/SDPL)	5,0%	3
Lega Nord	4,4%	3	CiU (CDC/UdC)	3,6%	2	PSL	3,0%
SEL	4,1%	3	ERC	3,2%	2	NP	3,0%
FdI/LD	3,5%		Amaiur	1,5%	1	SP	2,0%
PRC/PdCI	1,0%		PNV	1,5%	1	PJN	1,0%
SVP		1	Equo/Compromis/CHA/MES			Gowin
			CC/CPI/PA
			BNG/EA/Verdes

Romania			Netherlands			Greece
32 seats			26 seats			21 seats
d'Hondt			d'Hondt			Enishimeni Analogiki
national threshold 5%						national threshold 3%
CSCI 01-05/10/2013			Ipsos 31/10/2013			average october 2013
http://goo.gl/fjPPwp			http://goo.gl/nuReBk			http://goo.gl/VFhTdq
PSD/UNPR	41,0%	16	VVD	17,1%	4	ND	28,7%	7
PNL	20,0%	7	PVV	16,5%	4	SYRIZA	28,2%	7
PDL	18,0%	7	D66	16,1%	4	XA	9,1%	2
UDMR	5,0%	2	PvdA	12,9%	3	PASOK	7,2%	2
PP-DD	4,0%		SP	11,1%	3	KKE	6,5%	1
PMP	3,0%		CDA	9,6%	3	ANEL	6,2%	1
PRM	3,0%		50Plus	3,8%	1	DIMAR	4,3%	1
PC	2,0%		CU	3,8%	1	OP
ADA (FC/PNTCD)			GL	3,3%	1	LAOS
			SGP	2,9%	1
			PvdD	2,2%	1

Czech Republic			Belgium			Hungary
21 seats			21 seats			21 seats
d'Hondt			d'Hondt			d'Hondt
national threshold 5%						national threshold 5%
election 26/10/2013			La Libre Belgique 06/09/2013			average october 2013
http://goo.gl/pi5qze			http://goo.gl/0K5gI3			http://goo.gl/H566F1
CSSD	20,5%	5	N-VA	22,3%	5	Fidesz/KDNP	50,0%	11
ANO	18,7%	4	CD&V	10,9%	2	MSZP	25,5%	6
KSCM	14,9%	3	PS	10,8%	2	JOBBIK	12,5%	3
TOP09/STAN	12,0%	3	MR	8,8%	2	E2014/PM	5,5%	1
ODS	7,7%	2	SP.a	7,6%	2	DK	3,5%
Úsvit-UPD	6,9%	2	OpenVLD	7,5%	2	LMP	1,5%
KDU-CSL	6,8%	2	VB	7,2%	2	MoMa
SZ	3,2%		Ecolo	4,7%	1	SzDsz
SPOZ	1,5%		CDH	4,7%	1
DSSS	0,9%		Groen	4,4%	1
			LDD
			DN
			CSP		1

Portugal			Sweden			Austria
21 seats			20 seats			18 seats
d'Hondt			Sainte-Laguë (modified)			d'Hondt
			national threshold 4%			national threshold 4%
average october 2013			average october 2013			election 29/09/2013
http://goo.gl/nJhn0l			http://goo.gl/pvv5d0			http://goo.gl/etgBPE
PS	36,6%	9	SAP	34,5%	7	SPÖ	27,1%	5
PSD	25,3%	6	M	25,7%	6	ÖVP	23,8%	5
CDU	12,7%	3	SD	9,9%	2	FPÖ	21,4%	4
CDS-PP	8,5%	2	MPG	8,9%	2	Grünen	11,5%	2
BE	6,3%	1	Vp	6,2%	1	TS	5,8%	1
			FpL	5,4%	1	NEOS	4,8%	1
			Cp	4,2%	1	BZÖ	3,6%
			KD	3,8%		KPÖ	1,0%
			Pirat			Piraten	0,8%
			JL

Bulgaria			Denmark			Slovakia
17 seats			13 seats			13 seats
Hare/Niemeyer			d'Hondt			mixed method
national threshold ~5,88% Hare-quote						national threshold 5%
Sova Harris 18-24/10/2013			average october 2013			Focus 08-15/10/2013
http://goo.gl/vRmaHv			http://goo.gl/YrfSEZ			http://goo.gl/7Lhj3h
BSP	29,9%	8	V	26,2%	4	Smer SD	35,5%	5
GERB	26,9%	7	SD	22,5%	3	KDH	12,8%	2
DPS	7,3%	2	DF	18,3%	2	OLaNO	9,7%	1
DRB (DSB/DGB/SDS)	5,2%		Enhedslisten(FmEUEL)	9,6%	1	SDKU-DS	8,1%	1
VMRO-BND/BBT	3,3%		RV	8,0%	1	Nova	5,9%	1
ATAKA	2,8%		LA	5,5%	1	Most Hid	5,8%	1
NFSB			SF	5,4%	1	SMK	5,1%	1
BASTA			KF	3,8%		SaS	5,0%	1
			KD	0,7%		SNS	3,5%
			JB			L'S-HZDS	0,5%

Finland			Ireland			Croatia
13 seats			11 seats			11 seats
d'Hondt			STV
						national threshold 5%
Yle 07-29/10/2013			average october 2013			Ipsos Puls 26/10/2013
http://goo.gl/4ZxcFV			http://goo.gl/MzLrpu			http://goo.gl/yCLuXV
KESK	23,2%	3	FG	27,5%	3	SDP	28,6%	4
KOK	18,1%	3	FF	22,5%	3	HDZ	25,0%	4
PERUSS	17,4%	2	SF	20,0%	2	HL-SR	9,5%	1
SDP	16,9%	2	Labour	7,5%	1	HNS-LD	5,2%	1
VIHR	8,4%	1	Green	2,0%		Grubišic	5,0%	1
VAS	7,6%	1	indipendents			HDSSB	3,8%
SFP	3,9%	1	SP		1	HSP-AS	3,7%
KD	3,5%		Harkin		1	HSP	3,2%
						HSLS	3,2%
						HSS	2,6%
						HSU	2,6%
						BUZ	2,6%
						IDS	1,3%

Lithuania			Slovenia			Latvia
11 seats			8 seats			8 seats
Hare/Niemeyer			d'Hondt			Sainte-Laguë
national threshold 5%			national threshold 4%			national threshold 5%
Vilmorus 04-14/10/2013			Episcenter 10/2013			Latvijas Fakti 16-18/09/2013
http://goo.gl/L4kBTg			http://goo.gl/isJPFC			http://goo.gl/fQdHNQ
LSDP	39,2%	5	SD	29,5%	3	SC	41,5%	4
TT	14,7%	2	SDS	17,9%	2	Vienotība	24,6%	2
DP	13,8%	2	DeSUS	12,8%	1	ZZS	16,1%	1
TS-LKD	12,5%	1	PS	8,7%	1	NA	11,1%	1
LS	8,0%	1	SLS	4,5%	1	RP	3,1%
LVZS	4,3%		NSi	4,2%		LSDPS	1,2%
LLRA	4,0%		DL	2,2%		PCTVL	0,9%
LZP	1,6%		LDS			LA
DK	0,9%		SNS
LiCS			Zares
TAIP

Estonia			Luxembourg			Cyprus
6 seats			6 seats			6 seats
d'Hondt			d'Hondt			mixed method
						national threshold 1,8%
TNS Emor 25/09-02/10/2013			election 20/10/2013			election 22/05/2011
http://goo.gl/ZkhJmB			http://goo.gl/CoA3qo			http://goo.gl/S5rYfc
KESK	29,0%	2	CSV	33,7%	2	DISY	34,3%	2
ERef	22,0%	2	LSAP	20,3%	2	AKEL	32,7%	2
SDE	20,0%	1	DP	18,3%	1	DIKO	15,8%	1
IRL	20,0%	1	Dei Greng	10,1%	1	EDEK	8,9%	1
EER	1,0%		ADR	6,6%		EVROKO	3,9%
EKRE	4,0%					KOP	2,2%

Malta
6 seats
STV

election 09/03/2013
http://goo.gl/a1ZjWo
MLP	54,8%	4
PN	43,3%	2

Parliamentary groups: parties

EPP	226
CDU/CSU	42
PO	24
FI	20
PP/UPN	18
UMP	17
Fidesz/KDNP	11
ND	7
PDL	7
GERB	7
PSD	6
M	6
SC ?/UDC	5
UDI	5
ÖVP	5
HDZ	4
TOP09/STAN	3
FG	3
CDA	3
KOK	3
CSV	2
SDS	2
UDMR	2
CD&V	2
Vienotība	2
DISY	2
PN	2
KDH	2
KDU-CSL	2
CDS-PP	2
TS-LKD	1
SDKU-DS	1
CDH	1
CSP	1
SVP	1
IRL	1
Udc	1
SLS	1
Nova	1
SMK	1
EUL/NGL	59
Linke	10
FG (PCF/PG)	8
IU-PCE	7
Syriza	7
SC	4
SP	3
KSCM	3
CDU-PCP	3
SF	3
AKEL	2
Vp	1
HL-SR	1
BE	1
KKE	1
Rod-Gronne	1
DIMAR ?	1
VAS	1
SP	1
SF	1
far right	33
FN	19
PVV	4
FPÖ	4
VB	2
SD	2
TS	1
DUP ?	1

S&D	213
SPD	26
Labour	25
PD	23
PSOE/PSC	16
PSD/UNPR	16
PS	15
PS	9
BSP	8
SAP	7
SLD/UP	6
MszP	6
CSSD	5
Smer-SD	5
SPÖ	5
LSDP	5
SDP	4
MLP	4
SEL	3
SD	3
PvdA	3
SD	3
PS	2
SDP	2
SP.a	2
PASOK	2
LSAP	2
SDE	1
E2014 ?	1
EDEK	1
DIKO	1
Labour	1
SDPL	1







Greens/ALE	40
Grünen	9
Europe Ec.	5
NVA	5
Greens	3
Grünen	2
SNP	2
ERC	2
MPG	2
GL	1
Ecolo	1
VIHR	1
Groen	1
Dei Greng	1
IC-V	1
PC	1
ZZS	1
PvdD ?	1
Amaiur	1

EFD	27
UKIP	16
Lega Nord	3
PERUSS	2
DF	2
TT	2
MPF	1
SGP	1

ALDE	78
LibDems	8
PNL	7
MoDem	4
FDP	4
Venstre	4
VVD	4
D'66	4
ANO	4
FF	3
KESK	3
TR	2
DPS	2
KESK	2
MR	2
Open VLD	2
ERef	2
Úsvit-UPD	2
DP	2
PS	1
CDC	1
FpL	1
SFP	1
EAJ-PNV	1
RV	1
LA	1
LS	1
Harkin	1
DP	1
SaS	1
NEOS	1
DeSUS	1
Most-HID ?	1
HNS-LD	1
Cp	1
Grubišic	1




ECR	40
PiS	18
Tories	15
ODS	2
NA	1
UUP	1
CU	1
ANEL	1
OL'aNO ?	1











NI	35
M5S ?	18
UPyD	6
AfD	5
Jobbik	3
XA	2
50Plus	1

Parliamentary groups: summary

	22/08/2013 projection		06/11/2013 projection		election 2009
	total seats	% seats	total seats	% seats	seats (updated 01/11/2013)	% (updated 01/11/2013)
EPP - Populars	222	29,6%	226	30,1%	275	35,9%
S&D - Socialists and Democrats	219	29,2%	213	28,4%	194	25,3%
ALDE - Liberals and Democrats	65	8,7%	78	10,4%	85	11,1%
EUL/NGL - Radical Left	63	8,4%	59	7,9%	35	4,6%
Greens/ALE - Greens and Regionalists	46	6,1%	40	5,3%	58	7,6%
ECR - Conservatives and Reformists	48	6,4%	40	5,3%	56	7,3%
Far Right	27	3,6%	33	4,4%
EFD - Eurosceptics	26	3,5%	27	3,6%	32	4,2%
NI	35	4,7%	35	4,7%	31	4,0%
	751		751		766

Download full report (with party color)

Fabio Morgano - SondaggiBiDiMedia
special thanks to Wahlrecht.de and Wikipedia

Comments

Studi e Proiezioni Elettorali

lunedì 11 novembre 2013

European Election 2014: simulation of composition of new Parliament - November 2013 update