Previsões - Eleições presidenciais em Portugal em 2011
We follow our first post about the Portuguese presidential elections, with an update considering Google data up to Monday 17/01/2011.
As previously done in the first post, I considered the following possibilities:
1) Forecasts using GTI data and historical electoral results;
2) Forecasts using GTI data and historical electoral results with robust regression methods;
4) Forecasts using GTI data and past political opinion polls with robust regression methods;
The forecasts as of January the 17th are the following ones:
1) Cavaco Silva 49.88 Manuel Alegre 20.32
2) Cavaco Silva 50.11 Manuel Alegre 20.60
3) Cavaco Silva 59.48 Manuel Alegre 22.77
4) Cavaco Silva 60.40 Manuel Alegre 24.36
For sake of simplicity and interest, I considered only the two most important candidates. It seems that Manuel Alegre is losing ground, particularly in favor of Fernando Nobre.
Finally the latest trends in last 30 days reported by GTI and considering the main five candidates are reported below:
Gigi Bi
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